ANALYSIS: The Red Joins the Green – What’s Brewing in Zambia’s Opposition Kitchen?
What Just Happened?
Thursday 17th April 2025
Editorial by The FOX Newspaper
Fred M’membe’s Socialist Party, known for its leftist ideology and sharp criticism of capitalist tendencies, has officially joined the Tonse Alliance, led by Edgar Lungu, Zambia’s former President and Patriotic Front (PF) strongman. The alliance’s main goal? To unseat the UPND and President Hakainde Hichilema in 2026.
Why This Is Big News:
1. Ideological Shift or Political Convenience?
The Socialist Party’s move raises eyebrows – it was once miles apart ideologically from PF’s capitalist roots. So, is this a sell-out, or is it pure strategy? Either way, it shows ideology is taking a backseat to power.
2. United Front Against HH
The opposition is tired of fragmented losses. They now want to unite the “anti-HH vote” under one tent – rural, urban, youth, unemployed, civil servants, farmers – all targeted.
Why This Move Could Shake the Game
1. A Bigger Hammer Against HH
HH’s 2021 victory came due to a split opposition. A united opposition—especially with M’membe’s intellectual followers and grassroots mobilization—could pose a real threat.
2. Diversified Appeal
Lungu brings PF’s traditional base: Eastern and Northern provinces. M’membe brings radical youth, intellectuals, and a voice for the working class. The combo could pull votes from all corners.
3. Narrative War Intensifies
With M’membe’s media reach (through The Mast) and Lungu’s political clout, they can control public discourse more effectively than before.
4. Rural Mobilization
Socialist Party has quietly built structures in rural Zambia. This gives the alliance deeper penetration into voter-rich, low-coverage zones.
Cracks Under the Surface
1. Ideological Confusion
One preaches socialism, the other practiced capital-driven governance. The alliance could appear hypocritical and incoherent, especially to educated urban voters.
2. Leadership Clashes Looming
Who leads the alliance? Lungu is the de facto head now, but M’membe is not one to be a passenger. Expect power struggles post-2026—or even before.
3. Alienating Core Supporters
SP’s hardcore socialist supporters may feel betrayed by this move, weakening their grassroots trust.
4. UPND’s Opportunity to Attack
HH and UPND will capitalize on the ideological flip-flop, branding it as desperation and hypocrisy, and possibly scaring moderate voters.
What This Means for 2026 and Beyond:
• Game On: This coalition signals that the 2026 election won’t be a walkover for HH. The gloves are off, and battle lines are clear.
• Urban Youth Factor: If Tonse can win over unemployed youth tired of promises, UPND is in trouble.
• The Real Battle Is for the Narrative: It’s now about who tells the better story—reform and hope vs. unity and discontent.
Final Thought:
This is a political marriage of convenience. But in politics, strange bedfellows sometimes win. What remains to be seen is whether M’membe can carry his ideological base into a union that once opposed everything he stood for.
#weinformyoudecide #thefoxzambia
ANALYSIS: The Red Joins the Green – What’s Brewing in Zambia’s Opposition Kitchen?
