NEW DAWN GOVERNMENT MUST RETHINK STRATEGY ON EDGAR LUNGU AND PATRIOTIC FRONT TO SECURE 2026 RE-ELECTION
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By Professor Edgar Ng’oma Philosopher and Distinguished Governance Fellow.
*_Thursday 7th November 2024._*
*_Without fear or favour._*
I strongly advise the powers that be to recalibrate their strategy regarding Edgar Lungu (ECL) and the PF before it’s too late. The new dawn government’s handling of ECL and his Patriotic Front (PF) party has been counterproductive. Their constant criticism has boosted ECL’s popularity, making him a formidable force.
When one party focuses on disparaging a rival candidate during an electoral campaign, it can have unintended consequences on the minds of the people. This constant bombardment of negative information can lead to *Voter Apathy* and *Irritation*, causing people to become disenchanted with the entire political process.
Constantly criticizing a candidate can have unintended consequences. Instead of weakening their support, it can actually boost their popularity. This is due to three key factors.
__The Sympathy Factor__
When a candidate is repeatedly criticized, they can start to appear more relatable and sympathetic to voters. This can be especially true if the criticism is perceived as unfair or excessive. As a result, voters may begin to feel sorry for the targeted candidate and even see them as an underdog.
Like what happened to Donald Trump in the recently concluded election was dispeakable. Trump was portrayed as the devil reincarnate, an adulterous person not to be trusted. The Democrats went further to create dolls of Trump half-naked on a woman. Who does that!
__The Backlash Effect__
People may start to resent the party doing the disparaging, ultimately harming their own reputation. This backlash can lead to a loss of credibility and trust among voters, making it harder for the criticizing party to achieve their goals. The case in the Botswana election which kicked out President Masisi and his BDP Party out of government in the just ended election.
__Desensitization__
The constant negativity can desensitize voters, making them less responsive to legitimate concerns about the targeted candidate. When voters are exposed to repeated criticism, they may become numb to the issues and less likely to consider alternative viewpoints.
For instance, the New Dawn government’s efforts to combat corruption, while well-intentioned, may inadvertently boost the popularity of opposition candidates if not handled carefully. By understanding these factors, political parties can develop more effective strategies that focus on positive messaging and issue-based campaigning. I am not suggesting that the arrest of those that are found wanting must stop, but the way it should be handled is critical here.
When it comes to voting, cognitive biases can play a significant role in shaping our decisions. One of these biases is the *Confirmation Bias*, where voters selectively seek out information that confirms their existing views, ignoring contradictory evidence. This can lead to a narrow-minded approach, causing individuals to overlook alternative perspectives and facts that challenge their beliefs.
Another bias is the *Bandwagon Effect*, where people follow the popular opinion, even if it’s based on misinformation. This can create a snowball effect, where individuals jump on the bandwagon without critically evaluating the information. In politics, this can be particularly problematic, as it can lead to the spread of misinformation and the manipulation of public opinion.
Lastly, there’s the *Anchoring Bias*, where initial information anchors voters’ perceptions, making it harder to change their minds later. This can be especially influential during election campaigns, where early impressions of candidates can stick with voters throughout the campaign.
These biases can significantly impact the democratic process, leading to uninformed decisions and the reinforcement of existing beliefs. By recognizing these biases, we can take steps to mitigate their influence and foster a more informed and critical electorate.
It’s worth noting that emotions also play a significant role in voting decisions. *Fear and Anxiety* can drive voters to defend their interests or prevent undesirable outcomes. *Aspiration and Hope* can inspire voters to support candidates who promise positive change. Understanding these emotional influences can help us develop more effective campaign strategies and create a more empathetic and informed voting public.
Ultimately, being aware of these cognitive biases and emotional influences can help us make more informed decisions and create a healthier democracy.
To effectively engage voters, campaigns should focus on *Positive Messaging*, highlighting your own new dawn government strengths and policies rather than tearing down opponents. By doing so, you can create a more informed and enthusiastic electorate.
The new dawn government’s daily criticism of PF and ECL since taking power has resurrected his political career. I’ve warned that this approach is tantamount to marketing him. Critics argue that keeping quiet would ignore PF’s past mistakes.
However, the people have already spoken through the ballot, removing PF from power due to their dissatisfaction. Continuing to emphasize ECL’s shortcomings reinforces his sympathy factor. The electorate already have the reasons why they removed PF and ECL.
Let’s educate one another on voter psychology.
The psychology of voting is fascinating, and understanding what motivates people to vote is crucial for a healthy democracy. Research shows that voting is an act of altruism, where people take time and effort to advance the collective good without expecting personal rewards.
Voting behavior is complex and influenced by various factors. Internally, voters are driven by a sense of *Social Responsibility and Civic Duty*, feeling obligated to participate in the democratic process to improve their community and country. Voting also allows individuals to express their *Identity and Self-Expression*, fostering a sense of community and belonging through alignment with specific political allegiances. Additionally, casting a ballot gives citizens a sense of *Empowerment*, making them feel invested in their nation’s direction.
External factors also significantly impact voting behavior. *Social Customs and Peer Influence* shape election psychology, with social norms and peer groups influencing individual decisions. The *Media Influence* plays a substantial role in shaping public perception, altering how voters view candidates and issues. Effective *Campaigning Techniques* can also sway voter opinions and decisions.
Emotions also drive voting behavior. *Anxiety and Fear* motivate voters to prevent undesirable outcomes or defend their interests. The promise of positive change inspires voters, driven by *Aspiration and Hope* Conversely, *Anger and Dissatisfaction* with the current administration or policies can prompt voters to seek change.
Understanding these factors is crucial for effective democracy. In Zambia’s context, the New Dawn government must focus on economic recovery, anti-corruption efforts, and promoting democratic ideals it will resonate well with citizens. The administration must commit to transparency, consistency, and fairness it will definitely create an attractive investment climate. By addressing the country’s economic challenges and promoting citizen participation, the government can foster a sense of empowerment and civic duty among voters.
Voters make decisions based on a combination of emotions and rational thinking. When it comes to reasonable decision-making, three key factors come into play.
Firstly, *Issue-Based Voting* drives voters to support candidates who share their views on specific policy concerns. This means that voters prioritize candidates who align with their stance on issues that matter most to them, such as economic development, healthcare, or education.
Secondly, *Candidate Qualities* play a significant role in voters’ decisions. They evaluate candidates’ competence, honesty, and credibility, seeking leaders who demonstrate integrity, expertise, and a track record of success.
Lastly, *Party Loyalty* influences voters who feel a strong allegiance to a particular party or ideology. This loyalty can stem from a sense of shared values, past experiences, or a desire for consistency in governance.
By considering these factors, voters make informed decisions that reflect their values, needs, and aspirations. This thoughtful approach to decision-making is essential in a democratic process, ensuring that citizens’ voices are heard and their interests represented.
By understanding these motivations, we can encourage more people to participate in the democratic process and create a more informed and enthusiastic electorate.
Finally, to effectively govern and maintain public support, the New Dawn government should shift its focus away from criticizing Edgar Lungu and the Patriotic Front (PF) and instead highlight its own strengths and vision for the country. This strategic move will help the government demonstrate its capabilities and show the public why they are the better choice to lead the nation.
The New Dawn government in Zambia has a unique opportunity to shift its focus away from criticizing the opposition and instead highlight its own strengths and vision for the country. By doing so, they can boost public trust and confidence in their leadership, leading to increased public confidence. This approach will also enable the government to concentrate on delivering effective policies and programs, resulting in improved governance.
Reducing polarization is another benefit of this strategy. Constantly criticizing the opposition only serves to fuel division and animosity. By moving away from this approach, the New Dawn government can promote a more constructive dialogue and reduce polarization.
So, what strategies can the New Dawn government employ to achieve this?
_Highlighting Achievements_ is key. By sharing success stories and accomplishments, the government can demonstrate its capabilities and show citizens that it’s committed to delivering results.
_Engaging with Citizens_ is also crucial. This involves fostering open communication channels to understand public concerns and showcase the government’s commitment to addressing them.
_Presenting a Clear Vision_ for the country’s future is also essential. This means outlining a compelling vision that highlights the government’s plans and priorities.
By adopting this approach, the New Dawn government can establish a positive narrative, build public trust, and demonstrate its commitment to effective governance. This is especially important in Zambia, where the country has experienced economic difficulties and democratic weaknesses. The government’s focus on strengthening citizen engagement, increasing democratic space, and promoting free and fair elections will be critical in addressing these challenges.
I submit my informed perspective without bias or prejudice.
*Prof Edgar Ngoma Philosopher and Distinguished Governance Fellow.*
NEW DAWN GOVERNMENT MUST RETHINK STRATEGY ON EDGAR LUNGU AND PATRIOTIC FRONT TO SECURE 2026 RE-ELECTION
