How did a president who entered State House with such enormous goodwill end up fighting for his political life five years later?
Latest pronounced Zambian presidential election results!
If you had asked me last year about this election, I would have told you that Hakainde Hichilema would crush Brian Mundubile, a politician whom many people outside Zambia did not even know.
Yet here we are, with 105 of the 226 constituencies announced: Hichilema has 1,056,812 votes, or 54.8%, while Mundubile has 830,841 votes, or 43.1%. More strikingly, Mundubile has so far won 59 constituencies against Hichilema’s 46.
So what went wrong for the UPND and Hichilema for them to end up in such a tightly contested election?
That is the political question that should occupy serious analysts regardless of who eventually wins this election.
Hichilema came to power in 2021 with enormous goodwill and expectations. His government can point to significant macroeconomic achievements, including Zambia’s debt restructuring, renewed investment and an economic recovery. But elections are ultimately decided by how citizens feel about their everyday lives, not simply by what the economic indicators say. High living costs, poverty and unemployment remained important concerns going into this election.
There is also the question of democratic governance. Hichilema himself suffered repression when he was in opposition, so expectations were understandably high that his presidency would represent a decisive break with the political culture he had fought against. Instead, his government entered this election facing accusations of restricting opposition activity and suppressing dissent, allegations that his government has denied.
The lesson here is bigger than Hichilema and Zambia. Winning an election overwhelmingly does not give a political party permanent ownership of the electorate. Voters lend politicians their votes; they do not give them away forever.
Whatever the final result, the fact that Brian Mundubile has turned what many would once have expected to be an easy Hichilema victory into such a serious contest should force the UPND to ask itself some difficult questions.
How did a president who entered State House with such enormous goodwill end up fighting for his political life five years later?
By Hopewell Chin’ono