2026 ELECTION POLL SURVEY ANALYSIS
The first survey data for the 2026 election suggests a strong likelihood of an opposition win, signaling a significant shift in the country’s political leadership and presenting voters with a clear choice between two distinct opposition forces.
The UPND of President Hakainde Hichilema appears to command a strong presence in Southern, Western, and North Western provinces, with projected vote shares of 74%, 68%, and 66% respectively. These figures suggest a dominant hold in these regions.
The NRPUP of Brian Mundubile shows a formidable lead in Eastern, Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, and Copperbelt provinces, with percentages ranging from 51% in Copperbelt to 76% in Luapula.
Central province presents a closely contested race, with the UPND leading narrowly at 52% against the NRPUP’s 47%.
Similarly, Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces show tight margins, with the NRPUP projected to win both with 52% and 51% respectively, while the UPND trails slightly at 47% and 48%.
Overall, this provincial breakdown indicates a divided nation electorally, with neither party securing an outright majority across all regions.
The UPND’s strength lies in its traditional strongholds, while the NRPUP has made significant inroads into what were previously considered opposition territories.
The opposition, as a collective, appears poised for victory.
The UPND’s overwhelming leads in Southern, Western, and North Western provinces are crucial indicators of their core support base.
These provinces are not typically considered ‘battlegrounds’ in the traditional sense, but rather strongholds where their victory is almost assured.
However, the key battlegrounds emerge in provinces where the margins are narrow or where there is a significant shift in projected support.
Central province, with a mere 5% difference, is a critical area. A swing of just a few percentage points here could significantly impact the national tally.
Similarly, Lusaka and Copperbelt are vital. These urban centers often dictate national election outcomes due to their population density.
The fact that the NRPUP is projected to win Lusaka by a slim 52% to 47% margin, and Copperbelt by an even tighter 51% to 48%, highlights their importance.
Should the UPND manage to flip even one of these, it could dramatically alter the final result.
The NRPUP’s strong performance in Eastern, Luapula, Northern, Muchinga, and its narrow lead in Copperbelt and Lusaka, demonstrates their ability to mobilize support beyond their established bases.