Why was this plane trailing Malawi’s Veep?
Yesterday, news spread that the plane of the Vice President of Malawi Saulos Chilima went missing during the journey from Kamuzu International Airport (Lilongwe) to Mzuzu International Airport. While the Vice President’s plane has not been found or recovered so far, rumors have already spread about the circumstances of the incident. According to the Malawi government statement, Chilima departed from Kamuzu International at 3:17 am (CAT) on a Dornier Do228-200 aircraft (registration number MAF-T03) owned by the Malawi Defense Force and was scheduled to arrive in Mzuzu at 4 :02 in the morning.
However, the Vice President did not arrive there. Rumor has it that the plane crashed in a forest near the town of Chikangawa, about 225 kilometers from Kamuzu International. Based on this, estimates from the flight speed, schedule, and planned path of the plane are assumed to have crashed between 3:40 and 3:45.
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When I was looking for information about the flight path on flightradar24.com , I noticed something strange: in the period before the disappearance of the Chilima plane, another plane was found near it. The plane is a Beech 300 Super King Air 350, which is believed to be registered to Lasai Aviation LLC (registration number N828CJ), a subsidiary of Leidos Inc., which in turn is a contractor for the US Army. Although the registration of the aircraft was not shown on flightradar24, evidence of the aircraft operating in Malawi for the past month in a similar operational pattern indicates that it is an aircraft with the same registration.
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Leidos Inc. is contracted by the US Army Geospatial Center to collect global strategic geospatial data with high-resolution lidar technology, meaning only directional scanning of the earth’s surface.
The plane in question has been part of this project and was found operating in Eastern Europe, Jordan , and now Malawi . The flight path history chart supports that.
But how was the plane found near the Chilima plane just before it disappeared?
And not only that, it apparently stopped its scanning operation in one area of the country and took a large detour around the estimated route of the Vice President’s journey.
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The Beech 350 aircraft took off from Kamuzu International at 2:32 am (CAT) and began displaying scanning patterns over the area near Mitundu town until it exited its operation at 3:04 am, heading north. 20 minutes later, the transponder signal (tracking signal) was lost, then the plane reappeared briefly at 3:31. Importantly, the short-term appearance is no more than 25 kilometers from where Chilima’s plane is estimated to be at the same time. After appearing briefly, the transponder signal was lost again until it returned at 3:42 am, when the plane was already on its way back to Kamuzu International.
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There are several strange things about this flight path: First, the departure of the operation coincides in space and time with the movement of Chilima’s flight; second, it indicates from previously seen scanning patterns (see examples of previous operations below; there are no repetitive scanning lines); third, the loss of the transponder signal prevents tracking during the critical period when both planes are close; and fourth, any other operational details about the aircraft’s orbit, such as a longer landing strip, are meaningless, especially for an aircraft of this size.
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But what does all that mean in conclusion? There are three hypotheses which, although they may have some possibility, have not yet been fully proven:
1. The Lasai/US Army plane was involved in the disappearance of Chilima. Were they involved in the incident or even caused one?
That would be the most surprising interpretation, and although it is possible, I think it is more difficult. Direct engagement would make it impossible for them to operate an ADS-B transponder, which is unnecessary. A US intelligence operation would not have worked to provide this information.
2. The US intelligence agencies received information that something was being prepared to happen to Chilima’s plane and sent a nearby surveillance plane to ‘watch’. Did they know something was going to happen?
The hypothesis would suggest that the disappearance of Chilima’s plane was planned in advance. The American plane left its route before the departure of the Vice President, which would have made sense if the information had been received earlier.
3. It’s just bad luck.
ADS-B transponder data is not entirely reliable. Gaps like the ones found here can and do happen frequently, and errors can show the plane’s position far from where it actually is. There may be possible reasons for the flight path that are not related to Chilima’s disappearance and that are not clear and obvious.
