HICHILEMA HAS 70–80% CHANCE OF VICTORY, PARI-AFRICA RESEARCH SAYS
HICHILEMA HAS 70–80% CHANCE OF VICTORY, PARI-AFRICA RESEARCH SAYS
President Hakainde Hichilema has between a 70 and 80 percent chance of retaining power in the August 13, 2026 General Elections, according to a new pre-election analysis by PARI-Africa Research.
The analysis also projects that Zambia is unlikely to go into a presidential election re-run, with President Hichilema considered the most likely candidate to cross the mandatory 50 plus one percent threshold in the first round.
The findings are contained in a pre-election briefing titled “Zambia’s 13 August General Election: Assessing the Route to the Presidency,” authored by Southern Africa Coalition for Democracy and Accountability Executive Director Blessing Vava and Masosote Institute for Political Economy Director Tamuka Chirimambowa.
Published on August 8, 2026, the analysis concludes that a first-round UPND victory is the most likely single outcome, although it cautions that the projected victory should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence of overwhelming popularity for the incumbent.
According to the report, one of the UPND’s major advantages is its extensive participation at parliamentary, mayoral and ward levels, which gives the ruling party a stronger organisational capacity to mobilise voters, deploy polling agents and monitor the voting and counting processes.
The analysis states that the UPND has candidates in all 226 National Assembly constituencies, compared with 156 candidates for the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP).
The ruling party is also contesting 115 of the 116 mayoral and council chairperson positions.
“Ballot access is the clearest measurable difference between the two campaigns. The UPND contested effectively every seat available. The NRPUP did not,” the report states.
The researchers further point to a significant gap at ward level, where the UPND has fielded candidates across the country, while the NRPUP is contesting fewer than two-thirds of Zambia’s 1,858 wards.
According to the analysis, this disparity could have a major impact on election-day operations because candidates and their structures play an important role in deploying polling agents and monitoring the counting and aggregation of results.
“The NRPUP’s decisive weakness is organisational rather than rhetorical,” the report states.
Another major factor identified by PARI-Africa is opposition fragmentation, with 14 presidential candidates on the ballot potentially dividing the anti-incumbent vote.
However, the researchers caution that President Hichilema’s projected victory should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of overwhelming public support.
The analysis points to an underlying anti-incumbent sentiment among some voters, suggesting that while the UPND may have significant organisational and electoral advantages, the political landscape remains more complex than the projected margin alone may suggest.
With the election scheduled for August 13, the report nevertheless concludes that a first-round Hichilema victory remains the most likely outcome, with no presidential re-run expected.
© Zambian Watch News