AFRICA LENS: The winds of change are blowing in the SADC and a digital paper trail points to an unsettled electorate
..President Hichilema is dominating public media but online belongs to his contender, Brian Mundubile…
This week, it was brought to my attention that President Cyril Ramaphosa will deliver a keynote address at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban as part of South Africa’s programme of hosting the 46th Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
According to government communication, the President’s Public Lecture “is an opportunity for people from different sectors of society to participate in discussions about the regional integration agenda and strengthen public ownership of SADC’s Vision 2050.”
During this time, the SADC will convene its 46th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government on 16 and 17 August 2026 in Durban under the theme: “Translating SADC Vision 2050 into Action: Pathways Towards Solidarity, Equality and Shared Prosperity.” I could not help but think about the timing of the summit and the public lecture, especially during a period where the winds of change are blowing in so many different directions across the Southern African Development Community.
I have been assessing the SADC region for a while, especially since the start of the anti-illegal immigration protests that have been taking across South Africa, particularly inKZN.One thing for sure is that it is no longer business as usual, and the leaders of the SADC know it.
A number of member states have had elections recently. Tanzania, for example, recently held elections which were marred by widespread allegations of violence and rigging after scores of young people took to the streets to protest against the incumbent.Then we saw the elections in Malawi recently where people demanded change and elected Peter Mutharika as the new president.
South Africa is also facing its own challenges with the local government elections for 2026 coming up with a potentially record high voter turnout than expected. However, what caught my attention in particular was the elections coming up in Zambia.
Zambia is arguably one of Africa’s youngest, fastest-connecting democracies and currently, the President dominates the country’s screens, but the support online belongs to his challenger. Which h is another indication of how the winds of change are blowing in another direction.
Sixteen days before the Zambians vote, the data tells us a story that the raw numbers are hiding.
Online research reveals that Brian Mundubile, leader of the opposition National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), is dominating the space when it comes to Zambia’s supportive conversation.
Across more than 16,000 tracked posts and 137 million measured views on five platforms since mid-2025, content favourable to Mundubile has been seen more often than content favourable to President Hakainde Hichilema: 40.0 million supportive views to 34.4 million. That is a 54-to-46 lead, built on more supportive posts outright: 3,667 against 2,631.
Two in three views of the challenger’s coverage are favourable to him. For the President, the figure is 44 percent. More than one view in five of his coverage is critical which is four times his challenger’s total.
This is according to the Zambia 2026 Digital Media Monitor, which is an independent project tracking this electoral discourse. The monitor meticulously categorised posts to distinguish between supportive,neutral, and critical tones.
On raw volume, Hichilema has around 77 million views against 59 million: the routine advantage of ahead of state whose every official act generates coverage.
However, it must clearly distinguished that this is not a poll, and it does not predict a result. What it measures, at a scale few election-media studies anywhere attain, is what elections in the digital age increasingly turn on: not who is seen most, but who is seen best.
week.